Prognostic impact of MitraScore in elderly Asian patients with heart failure: sub-analysis of FRAGILE-HF

Abstract

Aims: MitraScore is a novel, simple, and manually calculatable risk score developed as a prognostic model for patients undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER) for mitral regurgitation. As its components are considered prognostic in heart failure (HF), we aimed to investigate the usefulness of the MitraScore in HF patients. Methods and results: We calculated MitraScore for 1100 elderly patients (>65 years old) hospitalized for HF in the prospective multicentre FRAGILE-HF study and compared its prognostic ability with other simple risk scores. The primary endpoint was all-cause deaths, and the secondary endpoints were the composite of all-cause deaths and HF rehospitalization and cardiovascular deaths. Overall, the mean age of 1100 patients was 80 ± 8 years, and 58% were men. The mean MitraScore was 3.2 ± 1.4, with a median of 3 (interquartile range: 2–4). A total of 326 (29.6%), 571 (51.9%), and 203 (18.5%) patients were classified into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups based on the MitraScore, respectively. During a follow-up of 2 years, 226 all-cause deaths, 478 composite endpoints, and 183 cardiovascular deaths were observed. MitraScore successfully stratified patients for all endpoints in the Kaplan–Meier analysis (P < 0.001 for all). In multivariate analyses, MitraScore was significantly associated with all endpoints after covariate adjustments [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval): 1.22 (1.10–1.36), P < 0.001 for all-cause deaths; adjusted HR 1.17 (1.09–1.26), P < 0.001 for combined endpoints; and adjusted HR 1.24 (1.10–1.39), P < 0.001 for cardiovascular deaths]. The Hosmer–Lemeshow plot showed good calibration for all endpoints. The net reclassification improvement (NRI) analyses revealed that the MitraScore performed significantly better than other manually calculatable risk scores of HF: the GWTG-HF risk score, the BIOSTAT compact model, the AHEAD score, the AHEAD-U score, and the HANBAH score for all-cause and cardiovascular deaths, with respective continuous NRIs of 0.20, 0.22, 0.39, 0.39, and 0.29 for all-cause mortality (all P-values < 0.01) and 0.20, 0.22, 0.42, 0.40, and 0.29 for cardiovascular mortality (all P-values < 0.02). Conclusions: MitraScore developed for patients undergoing TEER also showed strong discriminative power in HF patients. MitraScore was superior to other manually calculable simple risk scores and might be a good choice for risk assessment in clinical practice for patients receiving TEER and those with HF.