Detection and Projections of Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract

A study on the detection and future projection of climate change in\rthe city of Rio de Janeiro is here presented, based on the analysis of indices\rof temperature and precipitation extremes. The aim of this study is to provide\rinformation on observed and projected extremes in support of studies on impacts\rand vulnerability assessments required for adaptation strategies to climate\rchange. Observational data from INMET’s weather stations and projections from\rINPE’s Eta- HadCM3 regional model are used. The observational analyses indicate\rthat rainfall amount associated with heavy rain events is increasing in recent\ryears in the forest region of Rio de Janeiro. An increase in both the frequency\rof occurrence and in the rainfall amount associated with heavy precipitation\rare projected until the end of the 21st Century, as are longer dry periods and\rshorter wet seasons. In regards to temperature, a warming trend is noted (both\rin past observations and future projections), with higher maximum air\rtemperature and extremes. The average change in annual maximum (minimum) air\rtemperatures may range between 2℃and 5℃(2℃and 4℃) above the current\rweather values in the late 21st Century. The warm (cold) days and nights are\rbecoming more (less) frequent each year, and for the future climate\r(2100) it has been projected that about 40% to 70% of the days and 55% to 85%\rof the nights will be hot. Additionally, it can be foreseen that there will be\rno longer cold days and nights.