Climate variation in the European sector of the Arctic: Observations and scenarios

Abstract

Global climate models typically indicate that increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases will lead to a larger temperature increase at high northern latitudes than anywhere else in the world (Cubasch et al. 2001, Räisänen 2003). On the other hand, a majority of the models indicate an area of minimum temperature response around southern Greenland. Large gradients in warming rates are thus projected in the Arctic. The mean temperature in the Arctic did increase during the 20th century (e.g. Polyakov et al. 2003), but there are regional differences within the area. This paper is focused on the observed and modeled atmospheric climate in the European sector of the Arctic from 1900 to 2100. Are the observed changes in accordance with results from climate models? And what are the prospects for the future climate?