How to choose a project manager under uncertainty

Abstract

The success of modern construction projects heavily depends on assigned resources, one of the most crucial being the project manager. Project manager selection is a highly critical decision which is complicated because it does not depend on any single attribute but an analysis of several different characteristics of a candidate. This multicriteria approach which requires the assignment of weights to criteria and candidates introduces uncertainty derived from the subjective judgment of the decision maker(s). This uncertainty amplifies the risk of choosing the wrong person, particularly, when the applicant pool is large and comprised of similarly qualified or experienced candidates. While fuzzy uncertainty has been applied to discriminate among candidates, random uncertainties have been absent from the discourse. Cloud Theory which uses a bell-shaped membership function, and which is an amalgamation of Fuzzy Set Theory and Probability Theory, is used to account for both fuzzy and random uncertainties. A case study on a construction firm illustrates the hiring exercise and details how the preferences of decision makers are applied to the model. This new approach capitalizes on randomness between the fuzzy partitions when the alternatives appear indistinguishable. Such a model can aid human resource managers by simplifying decisions where uncertainty exists.