Uncertainty quantification for space situational awareness and traffic management

Abstract

This paper presents a sensor-orientated approach to on-orbit position uncertainty generation and quantification for both ground-based and space-based surveillance applications. A mathematical framework based on the least squares formulation is developed to exploit real-time navigation measurements and tracking observables to provide a sound methodology that supports separation assurance and collision avoidance among Resident Space Objects (RSO). In line with the envisioned Space Situational Awareness (SSA) evolutions, the method aims to represent the navigation and tracking errors in the form of an uncertainty volume that accurately depicts the size, shape, and orientation. Simulation case studies are then conducted to verify under which sensors performance the method meets Gaussian assumptions, with a greater view to the implications that uncertainty has on the cyber-physical architecture evolutions and Cognitive Human-Machine Systems required for Space Situational Awareness and the development of a comprehensive Space Traffic Management framework.