Dual-use distinguishability: How 3D-printing shapes the security dilemma for nuclear programs

Abstract

Additive manufacturing is being adopted by nuclear programmes to improve production capabilities, yet its impact on strategic stability remains unclear. This article uses the security dilemma to assess incentives for arms racing as the emerging technology becomes integrated into nuclear supply chains. Innovations sow the ground for competition by making it easier to produce weapons and harder to distinguish civil from military motives. But additive manufacturing could still mature into an asset by revealing greater information about nuclear aspirants. Beyond the nuclear realm, the article refines offense-defence theory to explain how changes in non-military technology shape the practice of deception.