Can Foreign Aid Dampen the Threat of Terrorism to International Trade? Evidence from 78 Developing Countries

Abstract

The study investigates whether development assistance can be used to crowd-out the negative effect of terrorism on international trade. The empirical evidence is based on a panel of 78 developing countries for the period 1984–2008 and quantile regressions. The following main findings are established. First, bilateral aid significantly reduces the negative effect of transnational terrorism on trade in the top quantiles of trade distribution. Second, multilateral aid also significantly mitigates the negative effect of terrorism dynamics on trade in the top quantiles of trade distributions. It follows that it is primarily in countries with above-median levels of international trade that development assistance can be used as an effective policy tool for dampening the adverse effects of terrorism on trade. Practical implications are discussed. Moreover, steps or strategies that can be adopted by managers of corporations involved in international trade are provided, inter alia: (a) the improvement in physical security in high risky places, (b) the reduction of uncertainty linked with politically risky investment environments, (c) the reduction of costs associated with investments in locations that are very likely to be impacted by terrorism, (d) the role of security consultants and (e) the enhancement of security in networks. JEL: F40, F23, F35, Q34, O40