A dynamic human reliability assessment approach for manned submersibles using PMV-CREAM

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Safety is always acritical focus of exploration of ocean resources, and it is well recognized that human factor is one of the major causes of accidents and breakdowns. Our research developed a dynamic human reliability assessment approach, Predicted Mean Vote-Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (PMV-CREAM), that is applicable to monitoring the cognitive reliability of oceanauts during deep-sea missions. Taking into account the difficult and variable operating environment of manned submersibles, this paper analyzed the cognitive actions of oceanauts during the various procedures required by deep-sea missions, and calculated the PMV index using human factors and dynamic environmental data. The Cognitive Failure Probabilities (CFP)were calculated using the extended CREAM approach. Finally, the CFP were corrected using the PMV index. This PMV-CREAM hybrid model can be utilized to avoid human error in deep-sea research, thereby preventing injury and loss of life during undersea work. This paper verified the method with “Jiaolong” manned submersible 7,000 m dive test. The“Jiaolong” oceanauts CR(Corrected CFP)is dynamic from 3.0615E-3 to 4.2948E-3, the CR caused by the environment is 1.2333E-3. The result shown the PMV-CREAM method could describe the dynamic human reliability of manned submersible caused by thermal environment.




Zhang, S., He, W., Chen, D., Chu, J., & Fan, H. (2019). A dynamic human reliability assessment approach for manned submersibles using PMV-CREAM. International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, 11(2), 782–795. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2019.03.002

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