Modeling Forest Woody Biomass Availability for Energy Use Based on Short-Term Forecasting Scenarios

Abstract

Bioenergy in Mexico offers a great potential as a transition strategy for introducing new energy supply chains. However, studies which focus on wood supply chains for bioenergy generation at a national level are scarce. Hence, this paper presents a model for predicting short-term availability of woody biomass for energetic use according to two scenarios. Scenario A exhibits business as usual conditions. In scenario B, the availability of forest woody biomass is improved by an increment in the areas of sustainably managed forest. The theoretical, technical and economic potentials of forest woody biomass availability for energetic use were assessed using (a) numerical modeling, (b) Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and (c) regression analyses Sustainability constraints and challenges such as soil degradation, terrain slope and mechanization level were considered. A regional case study was carried out, focusing on three species with the highest utilization rates (Pinus, Quercus and Abies). Setting the base at the year 2013, a forecast analysis for the year 2023 was performed. Under scenario B, for year 2023 a technical potential of 60.22 PJ was calculated, meaning an achievement of the goals set by the National Forestry Council regarding hectares under sustainable utilization. Furthermore, a net future value analysis was carried out to account the economic output during the forecasted period. Where comprehensive data was not available, the developed model was especially useful for predicting potentially available woody biomass for energy use.