The implications of native-born fertility and other socio-demographic changes for less-skilled U.S. immigration

Abstract

This paper examines the degree to which fertility and socio-demographic changes are reducing the size of the U.S.-born less-skilled working-age population in the United States. By less-skilled, we mean persons with a high school diploma or less. By consequences of fertility change, we mean the repercussions of both high fertility in past decades (the Baby Boom) and below replacement native-born fertility in more recent decades. By consequences of socio-demographic change, we refer to the rise in the proportion of the population starting and finishing college. In the context of evidence indicating that the relative size of economic sectors hiring less-skilled workers has not diminished in recent decades (with the exception of manufacturing employment), we suggest these demographic and social changes imply that the country will continue to rely on less-skilled immigrant workers. We assess this idea based on analyses of U.S. Census and American Community Survey data for decennial census years starting in 1970 and running through 2010. The results show a net decline of more than 7 million persons in the U.S.-born less-skilled working-age population since 1990, and a looming decline of more than 12 million between now and 2030. Educational upgrading, especially among women, contributes a notable share to these shifts, but so does earlier high fertility (the aging of the Baby Boomers) and more recent low native fertility. Interestingly, the number of less-skilled unauthorized immigrants living in the United States in 2010 is smaller than the decline in the size of the less-skilled U.S.-born working-age population over the same period.