No improvement noted in overall or cause-specific survival for men presenting with metastatic prostate cancer over a 20-year period

Abstract

BACKGROUND Prostate cancer mortality in the United States has declined by nearly 40% over the last 25 years. However, to the authors' knowledge, the contribution of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for the early detection of prostate cancer remains unclear and controversial. In the current study, the authors attempted to determine whether improvements in survival over time among patients with metastatic prostate cancer have contributed to the decline in mortality. METHODS Men aged ≥ 45 years who presented with de novo metastatic prostate cancer from 1988 to 2009 were identified within the California Cancer Registry. Overall survival and disease-specific survival were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazards modeling was performed to adjust for different distributions of variables between groups. RESULTS A total of 19,336 men presented with de novo metastatic prostate cancer during the study period. On multivariate analysis, overall survival was found to be better for men diagnosed from 1988 through 1992 and 1993 through 1998 than for men diagnosed in the most recent era (hazards ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.85 [P