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Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

Ocean Science (2017) 13(1) 47-60
DOI: 10.5194/os-13-47-2017
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Abstract

An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000-2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4m over the period 2000-2100. DSL extremes with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.

Figures

  • Figure 1. Mean sea surface height (SSH in meters) (a–c) and its standard deviation (b–d) over the years 1993–2012. (a) and (b) are derived from altimetry and (c) and (d) of the high-resolution simulation R021. Panels (e) and (f) show the mean SSH and the standard deviation for the low-resolution simulation Rlow021, respectively.
  • Figure 2. Change in the (a) mean and (b) standard deviation of modeled DSL in meters between the periods 2081–2100 and 2001–2020 for the R021 simulation. The panels (c) and (d) are magnifications of (a) and (b) for the North Atlantic region. (e–h) Same as (a–d) but for the Rlow021 simulation.
  • Figure 3. Change in (a) modeled mean steric height in meters, and change in (b) modeled mean ocean bottom pressure change in meters of equivalent water height between the periods 2081–2100 and 2001–2020 for the R021 simulation. The panels (c) and (d) are the same as (a) and (b) but for the Rlow021 simulation.
  • Figure 4. (a, d) Maximum AMOC strength at 35◦ S (blue) and 26◦ N (red) over the period 2000–2100 of (a–c) R021 and (d–f) Rlow021; (b, e) AMOC streamfunction (mean of years 2001–2020); (c, f) same as (b) and (e) but over the period 2081–2100.
  • Figure 5. Difference of horizontal surface kinetic energy (energy flux per unit area) in cm2 s−2 of the simulations (a) R021 and (b) Rlow021 in the North Atlantic (mean of years 2081–2100 minus mean of years 2001–2020). (c) shows the difference in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) of the years 2090 and 2010 of R021. Before computing EKE, the mean KE of the years 2080–2100 and 2000–2020 has been subtracted. (d) is the same as (c) showing only the North Atlantic.
  • Figure 6. Change in (a) sea surface temperature (◦C), (b) zonal wind stress (Pa), (c) surface heat flux (W m−2), and (d) surface freshwater flux (kg m−2 s−1) for the R021 simulation; again the mean over the last 20 years (2081–2100) minus that over the first 20 years (2001–2020) is shown. (positive values mean a flux into the ocean).
  • Figure 7. Regions in the North Atlantic (region of the subpolar gyre, near the US east coast and near the European coast) and locations (near Lisbon, Azores, and Bermuda) used for determining the PDFs and for the extreme value analysis.
  • Figure 8. (a, c, e) Estimated probability density function (PDF) of daily regional maximum DSL of simulation R021 and (b, d, f) of the daily regional minimum DSL in the three different regions in the North Atlantic shown in Fig. 7 (a region of the subpolar gyre, b near the US east coast, and c near the European coast). In each plot, a maximum daily value over the region is identified after all variability with frequencies lower than 550 days has been filtered out. (g–l) Same but for the locations indicated in Fig. 7 and using (g, i, k) monthly maximum local DSL values and (h, j, l) monthly minimum local DSL values derived from daily mean time series. The green histogram is the PDF for the first 20 years (2001–2020) and the blue histogram that for the last 20 years (2081–2100). The green and blue lines are the GEV distribution function fitted to the corresponding green and blue histogram, respectively.

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CITATION STYLE

APA

Brunnabend, S. E., Dijkstra, H. A., Kliphuis, M. A., Bal, H. E., Seinstra, F., Van Werkhoven, B., … Van Meersbergen, M. (2017). Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming. Ocean Science, 13(1), 47–60. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-47-2017

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