Productivity Benefits of Preventing Type 2 Diabetes in Australia: A 10-Year Analysis

Abstract

OBJECTIVE Diabetes imposes a heavy burden on both health and productivity. In this study, we sought to estimate the potential productivity gains associated with the prevention of type 2 diabetes over the next 10 years in Australia. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Dynamic life table models were constructed to estimate years of life lived and productivity-adjusted life-years (PALYs) lived by Australians aged 20–69 years over the period from 2020 to 2029. The models distinguished people with and without type 2 diabetes. PALYs were ascribed a financial value equivalent to gross domestic product (GDP) per full-time worker in Australia (∼200,000 Australian dollars [AUD]). The model simulation was first undertaken assuming currently expected trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes and then repeated assuming hypothetically that the incidence was reduced. The difference between the modeled outputs reflected the impact of new cases of type 2 diabetes on productivity as well as the potential benefits of prevention. An annual 5% discount rate was applied to all outcomes. RESULTS Over the next decade, 140 million years of life and 87 million PALYs will be lived by Australians of working age, contributing AUD 18.0 trillion to the country’s GDP. A 10% reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes would result in a gain of 2,510 PALYs and AUD 532 million in GDP. CONCLUSIONS This study illustrates the health and economic impact of type 2 diabetes and the gains that could be potentially achieved from the implementation of effective prevention strategies. However, cost-effectiveness evaluations of these prevention strategies are needed.