Analysis of spatial distribution in tropospheric temperature trends

Abstract

Regional patterns in tropospheric and sea surface temperature (SST) trends are examined for the period 1979-2001 using MSU, NCEP-NCAR, ECMWF reanalyses, NOAA OI SST, and the CARDS radiosonde data set. Trends are estimated using a nonparametric approach. Substantial regional variability in temperature trends is seen in all data sets, with the magnitude of the variability (including substantial regions with cooling trends) far exceeding the average warming trend. The global analyses from MSU and reanalyses are used to identify sampling problems in using radiosonde network to infer global trends. Analysis of tropospheric temperature trends concurrent with trends in SST shows regions where the signs disagree for both surface cooling and warming. Interpretation of these differing trends using the reanalyses suggest that the models used for the reanalyses are simulating the necessary dynamics/thermodynamics that could lead to a tropospheric cooling in contrast to a surface warming (and vice versa). Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.