Uncertainty in air quality decision making

Abstract

This paper considers the decisions that should be made arising from a prediction using a model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the prediction. Sometimes taking account of uncertainty leads to better decisions than just taking a decision on the basis of a single, central value. This is illustrated by examples taken from air quality models. Regulatory models need to be simple, leading to effective decision making, but their use implies accepting greater uncertainty. The paper describes an approach to this dilemma.