Planning Future Pathways: Implications and Outcomes of Scenario Studies

Abstract

This chapter turns to the use of scenarios for insight into the future, and how they have come to dominate approaches to the low-carbon transition. It reviews different techniques used and discusses what environmental and emissions scenarios tell us. Discussion of the practice of transition and transformation follows, including a review of some of the key outcomes from such studies, and examples of influential scenarios. It is argued that a more fundamental transformation beyond the limited reliance on techno-economic measures is needed, to look at development pathways, sustainability and social, cultural and political drivers. Political economy is highlighted as a lens on the many variables of power and politics that are central to the prospects for a social transformation on the scale necessary.