Epistemology of forecasting in international relations: Knowing the difference between ‘intelligence failure’ and ‘warning failure’

Abstract

Too often ‘intelligence failure’ and ‘warning failure’ are used interchangeably. These terms are considered equal parts of a forecasting equation, if they are considered separate entities at all. Mostly, they are perceived as two interchangeable terms, with the assumption that one necessarily leads to the other. This may be because analysts (those who are involved in producing intelligence products) and policymakers (those who are involved in consuming intelligence products) do not, or care not to, understand the different values and variables placed on ‘warning’ and ‘intelligence’.