Spatial Diffusion of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic: Modeling Implications and Case Study of AIDS Incidence in Ohio

Abstract

This paper extends a compartmental epidemiological model for HIV transmission and AIDS incidence to include hierarchical and expansion spatial diffusion. An implication of the resultant model is that hierarchical diffusion causes the large infection growth rates of densely populated areas at the top of the central places hierarchy to “chain” down and dominate small local growth rates during the exponential‐growth phase of the epidemic. Also, hierarchical diffusion causes a high transient growth rate in the first few years of a local epidemic. The spatial compartmental model fits observed AIDS incidence spatial diffusion patterns in Ohio reasonably well. 1993 The Ohio State University