A comparative forecasting model of COVID-19 case in Indonesia

Abstract

COVID-19 had been a disaster in Indonesia. Moreover, it is needed a study to analyze the trend of this case. The objectives of this study were (1) to propose the model for predicting COVID-19 using exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), neural network, and fuzzy time series and (2) to compare the performance for each model by using RMSE as evaluation tool. In this study, the splitting data is implemented by 3:1 ratio on train and test data set. The results show that the neural network has the smallest error, 772.46 for RMSE. It means that neural network perform better than other forecasting model. Once, the characteristic data had big impact to building forecasting model whether in classical or modern model.