The Study on the Validity of the Conceptual Cost Estimation Model by Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Normally, the Railroad Constructions need the huge budgets due to the large-scale works including civil, tunnel and bridge. Thus, it is so difficult to estimate the budgets out of data in the previous works. This research presents two models; (1) the conceptual estimation model by using the parametric method and regression analysis (2) the range estimation model for estimation of accuracy. Also, the simulation has been used for verifying the validity of the results from the conceptual estimation model to find the expected cost of High-Speed Railroad construction. In addition, the range estimation model for estimation of accuracy is generated by using Monte Carlo Simulation. Crystal Ball Program as a tool of the simulation is used in the research. The performance measures are used Percentage Error and the criterion according to the ACCE {[}1]. It is expected to improve the accuracy of the model and to contribute to effective total cost management.