The effect of meteorological factors on adolescent hand, foot, and mouth disease and associated effect modifiers

Abstract

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious viral illness that commonly affects infants and children. This infection is an emerging infectious disease in Rizhao in recent years. The present study examined the short-term effects of meteorological factors on adolescent HFMD in Rizhao. Design: A generalized additive Poisson model was applied to estimate the effects of meteorological factors on adolescent HFMD occurrence in 2010-2012. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to examine the potential effect modifiers of the association in terms of age, sex, and occupation. Results: A positive effect of temperature was observed (ER [excess risk]=1.93%, 95% CI: 1.05 to 2.82% for 1°C increase on lag 5 day). A negative effect of relative humidity at lag 1 day and positive effects were found on lag 5-7 days, and an adverse effect was observed for sunshine at lag days 3-4 (ER=-0.71%, 95% CI: -1.25 to -0.17% on lag day 4). We also found that age, sex, and occupation might be important effect modifiers of the effects of weather variables on HFMD. Conclusions: This study suggests that meteorological factors might be an important predictor of adolescent HFMD occurrence in Rizhao. Age, sex, and occupation might be important effect modifiers of the effects.