The Future of the Prison

Abstract

6.1 A few words of caution Attempting to predict the future of the prison is difficult, because of the range of different scenarios that have to be taken into account. Some outcomes might be more achievable than others in the light of existing trends but even then there will be abnormal events that cannot be expected or foreseen. For example, Swan's tend to be white so how do you account for the rare occurrence of a black Swan. 2 Nobody was able to predict the events surrounding the 7/11 terrorist attacks, yet they happened and have had a profound impact on world events since. Another challenge any prediction faces, is the chaotic and sometimes paradoxical nature of social processes. Social change seldom takes a linear and completely rational path. In most cases, social change takes a more hesitant and fragmented route where different actors push and pull towards different directions. This complexity is usually very difficult to capture in the exercise of social forecasting. All these arguments call for a modest approach in relation to anticipating the future. In the end, we have to accept that predictions, especially those in the social area, are highly risky and ultimately inexact. Indeed, as Nadin 3 observes, humans continue to make new discoveries that allow us to experience different perceptions of time and space. All these changes will surely have impact on our way of living, on our mutual interactions, and, eventually, on the way of administrating justice in ways that it is difficult to predict. In essence, attempting to predict the future can be little more than an 'educated guess' and acknowledging this provided the starting point for this project to consider the future of the prison. In the final conference, the project brought together around 80 participants from 25 different countries to consider current trends observed in the prison industry in Western democracies. Based on these observations, the position of this author in relation to the future of the prison is one of moderate optimism. From the methodological viewpoint, this paper takes the 'history of the present' approach developed by Foucault. 4 Briefly, this approach involves a careful analysis of the processes that shape present institutions and phenomenon. It connects the erratic and discontinuous processes by which the past become present and opens up different ways to the future. 5