Soil salinity and aridity specify plague foci in the United States of America

Abstract

Plague is a deadly zoonosis that periodically reemerges as small outbreaks in geographically limited foci where the causative agent Yersinia pestis may reside in soil. We analyzed a dataset of 1.005 carefully documented plague cases that were georeferenced over 113 years in peer-reviewed literature in the contiguous United States. Plotting outbreaks by counties defined as plague foci on geographical maps, we observed a significant co-localization of plague outbreaks with high soil salinity measured by an electric conductivity of >4 dS/ m−1 and aridity measured by an aridity index <0.5. Thus, we identified aridity and soil salinity as significantly associated with ecological risk factors for relapsing plague in the contiguous United States. These results reveal two evolutive parameters that are partially associated with anthropic activities, complicating the epidemiology of plague in the contiguous United States. Exploiting aridity and soil salinity data may help in the surveillance of evolving plague foci in the contiguous United States.