Economic Impacts of a California Tsunami

Abstract

The economic consequences of a tsunami scenario for Southern Californiaare estimated using computable general equilibrium analysis. The economyis modeled as a set of interconnected supply chains interacting throughmarkets but with explicit constraints stemming from property damage andbusiness downtime. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction ofGross Domestic Product for Southern California, Rest of California, andU.S. economies. For California, total economic impacts represent thegeneral equilibrium ( essentially quantity and price multiplier) effectsof lost production in industries upstream and downstream in thesupply-chain of sectors that are directly impacted by port cargodisruptions at Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach ( POLA/ POLB),property damage along the coast, and evacuation of potentially inundatedareas. These impacts are estimated to be $2.2 billion from portdisruptions, $0.9 billion from property damages, and $2.8 billion fromevacuations. Various economic-resilience tactics can potentially reducethe direct and total impacts by 80-85%. (C) 2016 American Society ofCivil Engineers.