A methodology for assessing the impact of climate change on building energy consumption

Abstract

Global average surface-air temperatures over land and oceans have been increasing over the past 100 years mainly because of anthropogenic climate change. Cities, due to the concentration of population, economic activities, and built infrastructures, are high-risk and potential damage areas in global warming scenarios. Specific microclimate conditions, which occur in urban areas, are expected to change with almost certainly disadvantageous effects on the energy consumption of buildings and the quality of life at outdoor spaces. Most buildings have a life span of several decades, during which the urban microclimate will continue to change gradually. Building energy simulation (BES) programs are capable of predicting building energy performance in detail in a dynamic model. These models should ensure that new buildings will adapt to future conditions. Nevertheless, the meteorological data used as input, even if it is in situ-measured urban microclimatic data, are generally based on current or past weather conditions and do not attend future scenarios. The objective of this chapter is to present a parameterization of the impact of urban microclimatic conditions on energy performance of buildings in the current situation (2020), and in three tentative future scenarios assuming the microclimatic conditions from RCP 4.5 (2015-2039) and RCP 8.5 in two time lapses (2015-2039 and 2075-2099) from the fifth IPCC report. As application example, a case study in the city of Mendoza, Argentina, is presented. First, the model is run in the BES program EnergyPlus with the current urban microclimatic conditions, calibrated with on-site measured data. Then, the same model is run for microclimatic RCP scenarios. Meteorological conditions are adopted from a predictive mathematical model of the IPCC using EPW files as input. Based on the obtained results, the impact of climate change on urban microclimate and expected changes in energy consumption of buildings during the next century are discussed.