Chapter 13 a track-relative climatology of eglin air force base hurricanes in a variable climate

Abstract

The evolving hurricane threat to coastal communities is a critical consideration in the face of a changing climate. With a possible increase in hurricane destructive potential, it is important to analyze the climatology of hurricanes at a local, or decision-making, level. This chapter outlines a technique for establishing a climatological hurricane track for Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB) based on the occurrence and intensity of past hurricane events. First a “worst-case” track for a hurricane approaching EAFB is created by averaging distance maps of historical hurricanes. Hurricane characteristics (intensity and translation speed) are assigned to the track by gathering information from past hurricanes that passed nearby a set of points along the track. Then, by limiting the set of hurricanes to those from warm and cool sea surface temperatures epochs, the process is repeated to show the affects a changing climate might have on the hurricane risk to EAFB. The technique can be applied to any coastal location, and serves as a basis for understanding a local-scale hurricane climate and the affects of climate change on future hurricane threats.