Geotechnical approaches to climate change adaptation

Abstract

Several signs indicate an ongoing global warming and scenarios show that the warming will continue. According to climate change scenarios the annual temperature in Sweden will increase by 2.5-4.5°C in the next century. In most of Sweden the annual precipitation will increase by 5-30% in the next century. The expected sea level increase is ca 1-2 mm/year. In the south of Sweden this will result in an increased coastal sea level of approximately 0.5 m in less than 100 years. Erosion along coastal areas will increase due to changes in the sea water level, storm-waves and by wind itself. Erosion in open watercourse areas will increase due to increased water flows. Rough calculations have been done, as a first estimate, of the impact of increased precipitation on hillside slide risks. Reduced safety, for all types of hillsides included in this investigation, is to be expected. Additional risks such as the higher frequency of mudflows due to increased precipitation are expected. Along rivers there is often industrial activity and contaminated ground due to historical industrial activities. Increased ground water levels will make many of the soil pollutants more movable and possibly more biologically available. The leaching of eutrophic species from farming will increase due to increased water flows, especially under heavy rainfalls. An important influence of the increased precipitation is the leaching conditions of landfills. Simplistic predictions show that the percolation and thereby the leaching of pollutants will increase.