Modeling and forecasting international arrivals from china to australia

Abstract

China has risen to second ranking source of Australia’s international tourists by the end of 2012. In term of market share, Chinese represented about 7.69% international arrivals to Australia in 2012. This paper undertake a statistical analysis of inbound tourism arrivals to Australia from China. In particular, ARIMA model will be estimated by tourist arrivals quarter data from Q1 1995 to Q4 2009 and validated by Q1 2010 to Q2 2013. The expected outcomes is the determination of a statistically optimal time series model of Australia tourism demand, which will provide a better understanding of the importance of the Chinese tourist market for Australia, and provide a practice quarterly forecast with confidence 95% on international tourist arrivals from China to Australia between Quarter3 2013 and Qutarter4 2016. Such knowledge will aid in tourism planning by private and public sectors to achieve efficient development and management of tourism facilities and infrastructure.