Carbon management in Indian forests: A policy analysis to assess mitigation potential

Abstract

The forest sector provides mitigation opportunities to address climate change. Afforestation and reforestation have been identified as important mitigation options. Thus, there is a need for estimating the mitigation potential at local, national and global levels. India has an ambitious plan to bring approximately 33% of its geographical area under forest cover. In this article, we analyze the mitigation potential of this policy over the period of 2010-2030, considering two scenarios: a rapid afforestation rate (scenario-2020, achieving the 33% goal by 2020) and a moderate afforestation rate (scenario-2030, achieving the 33% goal by 2030). Assessment using the generalized comprehensive mitigation-assessment process model shows that afforestation could mitigate 5.2 GtCO2 under scenario-2020 over the 2010-2030 period, compared with 3.96 GtCO2 under scenario-2030, over the same period. Furthermore, we show that the rapid afforestation scenario has the potential to offset approximately 9% of India's average national emissions projected by five models, for the same period. The afforestation under the two scenarios provides an incremental mitigation potential of 1.8-3.2 GtCO 2 over the baseline scenario, for the period of 2010-2030, with the potential to offset 3.0-5.4% of the average national emissions projected for the same period. © 2010 Future Science Ltd.