On the reliability of the geomagnetic quake as a short time earthquake's precursor for the Sofia region

Abstract

The local "when" for earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic "quakes" and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately ±1 day and for the maximum ±2 days. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002-2003 for the Sofia region is given. The possibility for creating a local "when, where" earthquake research and prediction NETWORK is based on the accurate monitoring of the electromagnetic field with special space and time scales under, on and over the Earth's surface. The periodically upgraded information from seismic hazard maps and other standard geodetic information, as well as other precursory information, is essential. © European Geosciences Union 2004.