Midwinter deceleration of the subtropical mesospheric jet and interannual variability of the high-latitude flow in UKMO analyses

Abstract

The variability of zonally averaged stratospheric circulation is examined using daily gridded analyses from the U.K. Met. Office for 1991-99, corresponding to the period observed by the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. Application of rotated principal component analysis to the dataset reveals dominant modes of variability consisiting of annual, semiannual, and quasi-biennial oscillations, together with intraseasonal and interannual variability in the winter hemisphere. In the upper stratosphere during northern winter, poleward propagating zonal wind anomalies at the stratopause and a sudden deceleration of the subtropical mesospheric jet in each midwinter are observed. The high-latitude flow is more variable, and the data suggest two contrasting types of wintertime evolution in the polar stratosphere. One is characterized in high latitudes by relatively strong flow in early winter and a significantly weakened flow after solstice, the other by relatively weak flow in early winter and a strong positive flow anomaly after solstice. In both the subtropical deceleration is accompanied by high-latitude acceleration. In the second type, polar westerlies remain long after solstice, decaying gradually, while in the first type, polar easterlies appear after 10-30 days. In two winters of the first type, the subtropical deceleration is unusually abrupt, followed by brief reacceleration of the polar vortex and a spectacular breakdown after 30 days. Multivariate EOF analysis incorporating temperature data separates deceleration events in northern winter affecting the subtropical jet, with midlatitude warming, from those affecting the polar night jet, with polar warming.