Game changer: Industrial impacts of the shale gas revolution in the U.S.

Abstract

North American gas supplies have increased dramatically since 2006, leading to a reduction in prices, and an increase in electric power generation and industrial use. The Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) has organized several meetings to analyze the economic and climate implications of this increased natural gas supply. This paper describes a collaborative effort between Inforum and the Mitre Corporation to use the LIFT and MARKAL models in a coupled system, to understand various implications of the shale gas revolution. Scenario analysis is used to assess the impact of increased gas supplies on the structure of production, and on aggregate measures of well-being such as GDP and disposable income. A crucial question is whether the potential for increased U.S. gas exports to Europe, in the form of LNG, can improve the state of energy security in Europe. Infrastructure is not yet in place, but significant investments are beginning. In the last section, we explore the potential of these increased exports to affect gas supplies in both the U.S. and Europe.