What drives support for separatism? Exposure to conflict and relative ethnic size in Biafra, Nigeria

Abstract

What determines support for separatist movements in Africa? The past two decades have seen a rise in separatism across Africa, including renewed Nigeria's Igbo Biafran nationalism. While a large body of work has focused on the behaviour of African separatist movements themselves, less work has examined the correlates of popular support for their claims and goals. This study does so, focusing on two important factors. First, it examines whether exposure to conflict events involving neo-Biafran movements increases or decreases support for the claims made by the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB). The study uses geo-coded data from the Afrobarometer and ACLED datasets to measure proximate exposure and finds that more exposure correlates positively with support for secession. Second, it argues that the highest levels of support should be associated with members of ethnic groups that would dominate the proposed state. Drawing again from Afrobarometer, the study finds support for this.