Prognostic nomogram for elderly patients with acute respiratory failure receiving invasive mechanical ventilation: a nationwide population-based cohort study in Taiwan

Abstract

Patients in critical care medicine are ageing. There is limited literature evaluating long-term outcomes and prognostic factors for the growing number of elderly patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF) receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Data on elderly patients (≧ 65 years old) with ARF receiving intubation and IMV during 2003–2012 were retrospectively collected from the national health database in Taiwan. We included 7,095 elderly patients. The 28-day mortality was 33%, the 60-day mortality was 47.5%, and the 1-year mortality was 70.4%. Patients were divided into groups: young-old (65–74 years), middle-old (75–84 years), and oldest-old (≧ 85 years). Patients in the oldest-old and middle-old groups had higher 1-year mortality than the young-old group (p < 0.001). The multivariate logistic regression revealed 9 significant factors associated with 1-year mortality, and these factors were used to develop a prognostic nomogram. The present study showed that the long-term prognosis of elderly patients with ARF and IMV is very poor. This nomogram can help physicians estimate the 1-year mortality of elderly patients in the early stage of ARF and assist in clinical decision making.