Impact of climate change on precipitation patterns: a comparative approach

Abstract

Assessment of the impact of climate change on future precipitation scenarios is critical for water resources planning and development. Despite the advances reported in climate modelling, it remains a challenge to adequately develop approaches for impact assessment that can be easily interpreted by a wide range of decision makers in the society. The future scenarios are customarily projected with a range of uncertainties. Based on a case study, this article first discusses the complementarity of different statistical tools that are relevant for assessing the impact of climate change. Then, it reports a probabilistic method, which shows promising applicability. Specifically, we address the effect of climate change over the entire range of monthly precipitation and the number of precipitation events (>3 mm) across the Texas Gulf watershed. We consider daily precipitation series released by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for historical (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) periods. The precipitation series are bias-corrected and are then analysed using different statistical methods, including trends and pooled analyses. Subsequently, we present a probabilistic approach that is capable of depicting the plausible effects of climate change in time and space. Finally, we infer temporal changes in seasonal precipitation across the watershed, which suggest meaningful spatial disparity. The probabilistic approach may serve as a complementary tool that seems to be relevant for a holistic interpretation of critical changes in precipitation patterns under climate change.