Demographic Spatialization Simulation under the Active “Organic Decentralization Population” Policy

Abstract

A matter of considerable concern is managing rapid population growth in a growing megacity. After years of endeavor, the “decentralize and population cap” policy has finally been implemented and has achieved some success in Beijing, China. Before applying what has been learnt from this experience to other places, two questions remain to be addressed: “Can urbanization result in land-population harmony under the double effects of accessible guiding plans and invisible push-pull forces?” and “What will be the likely geo-simulation of population density resulting from a city decentralization process?” Under the guidance of “orderly city development” theory, our research (1) simulated the effects of the “organic population decentralization” policy on future population density dynamics; (2) proposed a new framework that coupled models of Verhulst logistic differential population and Cellular Auto-Markov; and (3) analyzed the steering effect of the policy toward a spatial population distribution that could be described as “spread through decentralization.” The results showed that Beijing is currently at the beginning of the “suburbanization” stage. This study can help geographers obtain an innovative method that couples the existing spatial population patterns and the potential population size, which is beneficial for urban planners in determining the spatial structure of a relative equilibrium status for urban development.