A novel situation awareness model for network systems' security

Abstract

Building and maintaining the information superiority is the basis of the principle of active defense, integrated guarding in the cyberspace. In this paper, a novel method based on grey verhulst model was introduced to forecast the network system's security situation. Starting with unequal interval original risk data series, the proposed method choosed grey verhulst model or its inverse function to forecast the future risk value of network system, ant then it could modify the forecasting precision based on multilevel residual error. Simulation results reveal that the presented model not only gains the intuitionistic curve graph of network security situation, but also can achieve satisfactory precision. At the same time, it is simple in use and deserves further study to fully explore its potential for evaluation issues. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.