Cytokine profile distinguishes children with plasmodium falciparum malaria from those with bacterial blood stream infections

Abstract

Background. Malaria presents with unspecific clinical symptoms that frequently overlap with other infectious diseases and is also a risk factor for coinfections, such as non-Typhi Salmonella. Malaria rapid diagnostic tests are sensitive but unable to distinguish between an acute infection requiring treatment and asymptomatic malaria with a concomitant infection. We set out to test whether cytokine profiles could predict disease status and allow the differentiation between malaria and a bacterial bloodstream infection. Methods. We created a classification model based on cytokine concentration levels of pediatric inpatients with either Plasmodium falciparum malaria or a bacterial bloodstream infection using the Luminex platform. Candidate markers were preselected using classification and regression trees, and the predictive strength was calculated through random forest modeling. Results. Analyses revealed that a combination of 7-15 cytokines exhibited a median disease prediction accuracy of 88% (95th percentile interval, 73%-100%). Haptoglobin, soluble Fas-Ligand, and complement component C2 were the strongest single markers with median prediction accuracies of 82% (with 95th percentile intervals of 71%-94%, 62%-94%, and 62%-94%, respectively). Conclusions. Cytokine profiles possess good median disease prediction accuracy and offer new possibilities for the development of innovative point-of-care tests to guide treatment decisions in malaria-endemic regions.