The need for uncertainty-based analysis in power system networks

Abstract

The increased usage of renewable energy in conjunction with nonrenewable energy source is disturbing the reliability of generation system. This is mainly because of the variability of the power coming from renewable energy sources. Weather change is the main cause for the renewable energy variability. The weather not only disturbs generation, but also transmission line sag-tension and conductor length, thereby varies the voltage drop in the line. The combined transmission line loss, generation variability and load variation make punctual power flow analysis unreliable for planning and forecast purpose. This paper focuses on identifying the main driving forces for power uncertainty. A test case study is conducted and the result shows there is a high variation of the wind and solar energy that led to power variation.