ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS AT THE MACRO AND MICRO LEVELS

Abstract

The theoretical and practical aspects of the application of the econometric approach to making managerial decisions in a crisis at the micro and macro levels are highlighted. Theoretical aspects determine the basic categories of the research problem: Managerial decision, stages of managerial decision-making to determine the feasibility of using econometric methods, crisis and crisis phenomena, econometric approach. The specifics of making managerial decisions in a crisis at the micro and macro levels have been determined; the characteristic features, areas of problem solving and methods for solving managerial problems are considered, depending on the level of their formalization. Practical aspects highlight the rationale for the use of econometric methods at the stage of problem identification: Identification of crisis phenomena in the relevant areas; a quantitative analysis of the crisis made it possible to identify and determine the imbalances. The advantages and disadvantages of the econometric approach to managerial decision-making are determined; general econometric methods of substantiating managerial decisions and their consequences are described. The features and advantages of Data-driven decision-making over Highest Paid Person's Opinion are determined; the types of information and analytical support of managerial decisions and the methods used for its formation are determined. The author's understanding of the concepts «econometric approach to managerial decision making», «information and analytical support of managerial decisions» is proposed. Practical aspects highlight the feasibility of using econometric methods and at the stage of justifying managerial decisions –the use of econometric methods in accordance with the scope of application, taking into account its specificity and state: A matrix «economic security –standard of living –innovative development» has been developed to justify the decision on the application of strategies to ensure economic security through changes in the level of innovative development and the standard of living of the population of the region (transformation strategy, innovative development strategy, human development strategy and growth strategy) on the basis of correlation-regression analysis, calculation of partial elasticity coefficients, a potentially most effective variant of reconfiguring the functional components of the innovation infrastructure was established; a model of authentic management of the development of the Ukrainian tourist services market has been developed, which assumes the use of specific mechanisms of authentic management and accounting for the authenticity of the cultural and historical resources of local tourism markets, the asymmetry of infrastructural and socio-economic development of markets, the spatial polarization of the location of climatic and recreational factors of local tourist markets; based on the results of the taxonomic analysis of the state of the hotel and restaurant industry, managerial solutions were proposed for the implementation of the strategy for the development of the hotel and restaurant industry for the coming period, including activities at the national level and at the level of individual business entities; an algorithm for making optimal decisions based on the development of the innovative potential of personnel has been developed: Defining the problems of enterprise development; search for the reasons for the retardation of the development of the enterprise; determination of the reasons for the retardation of the development of the enterprise; determination of optimal solutions depending on the formulated problem; development of recommendations for achieving strategic goals, based on the construction of a «tree of opportunities»; a cognitive map (graph) of the process of making strategic decisions in the sphere of making strategic changes at mining and processing enterprises was built taking into account the influence of the following concepts: Goals of strategic changes; the goals of the enterprise strategy implementation; the duration of the change lag; the level of encouragement of the team of changes; threshold opportunities for strategic change; unique opportunities for strategic change; average opportunities for strategic change; sufficiency of the potential for strategic changes; resistance to change; fiduciary corporate culture.