Climate-driven range shifts and demographic events over the history of Kruper's Nuthatch Sitta krueperi

Abstract

Capsule This study is the first ever documented evidence of an interglacial refugium during the Last Interglacial for birds in Anatolia and suggests the need of a re-examination of the effects of the Last Interglacial on the geographic distribution and genetic structure of species. Aims We tested whether, in accordance with the 'refugia within refugia' model, multiple refugia existed for Kruper's Nuthatch Sitta krueperi during the Last Glacial Maximum or the species survived along the coastal belt of Anatolia through the Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles. Methods An ecological niche model was developed to predict the geographic distribution of Kruper's Nuthatch under reconstructed past (the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum), present, and projected future bioclimatic conditions. Also, robust coalescent-based analyses were used to assess demographic events over the history of Kruper's Nuthatch. Results Kruper's Nuthatch survived the Last Glacial Maximum almost along the coastal belt of Anatolia, but not in multiple refugia, and surprisingly, contrary to expectations, it survived the Last Interglacial in southern Anatolia, but not along the coastal belt of Anatolia. Conclusion A kind of the 'refugia within refugia' model (i.e. the 'refugium within refugium' model) was supported because range shifts took place within Anatolia (itself also a refugium) for Kruper's Nuthatch.