COVID-19 deaths in the USA: Benford's law and under-reporting

Abstract

Background: I use Benford's law to assess whether there is misreporting of coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) deaths in the USA. Methods: I use three statistics to determine whether the reported deaths for US states are consistent with Benford's law, where the probability of smaller digits is greater than the probability of larger digits. Results: My findings indicate that there is under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths in the USA, although the evidence for and the extent of under-reporting does depend on the statistic one uses to assess conformity with Benford's law. Conclusions: Benford's law is a useful diagnostic tool for verifying data and can be used before a more detailed audit or resource intensive investigation.