A Novel Algorithm with Paired Predictive Indexes to Stratify the Risk Levels of Neonates with Invasive Bacterial Infections: A Multicenter Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Our aim was to develop a predictive model comprising clinical and laboratory parameters for early identification of full-term neonates with different risks of invasive bacterial infections IBIs. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study including 1053 neonates presenting in 9 tertiary hospitals in China from January 2010 to August 2019. An algorithm with paired predictive indexes PPIs for risk stratification of neonatal IBIs was developed. Predictive performance was validated using k-fold cross-validation. Results: Overall, 166 neonates were diagnosed with IBIs 15.8%. White blood cell count, C-reactive protein level, procalcitonin level, neutrophil percentage, age at admission, neurologic signs, and ill-appearances showed independent associations with IBIs from stepwise regression analysis and combined into 23 PPIs. Using 10-fold cross-validation, a combination of 7 PPIs with the highest predictive performance was picked out to construct an algorithm. Finally, 58.1% 612/1053 patients were classified as low-risk cases. The sensitivity and negative predictive value of the algorithm were 95.3% 95% confidence interval: 91.7-98.3 and 98.7% 95% confidence interval: 97.8-99.6, respectively. An online calculator based on this algorithm was developed for clinical use. Conclusions: The new algorithm constructed for this study was a valuable tool to screen neonates with suspected infection. It stratified risk levels of IBIs and had an excellent predictive performance.