Political Risk Assessment and the Arab Spring: What Can We Learn?

Abstract

Whether dealing with debt issues in the Eurozone, investment prospects in emerging markets, or potential disruptions in patterns of global trade, the identification, assessment, and measurement of political risk (PR) are recurring issues for businesses and governments today. In the past few years, abrupt social and political change has become the rule in international relations. A prominent instance of this is the "Arab Spring," the massive and unexpected wave of social and political turmoil that, starting in the winter of 2010-2011, swept across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The Arab Spring has significantly affected the business climate of the countries involved. In doing so, it has also exposed the shortcomings of the extant approaches to PR assessment. This article discusses the performance of five different approaches to PR assessment (OECD, ONDD, EIU, PRS, SACE) vis-à-vis the Arab Spring, providing some specific suggestions on how to improve PR assessment and analysis.