ANALISA DERET WAKTU CURAH HUJAN DAN KARAKTERISTIK IKLIM DI KOTA MAJALENGKA

Abstract

Global warming has a real impact on climate and our environment. Increasing temperatures change the rainfall characteristics and causes extreme weather that potentially create climate change and disasters. Majalengka City has to arrange any anticipation action of disasters vulnerability such as flood, drought and landslide. Flood neither drought disasters anticipation can be done by rainfall forecast, in short term period by ARIMA model. Rainfall forecast based on time series of monthly rainfall data of Majalengka City for ten years that ranges in 2011 to 2021. Seasonal index of Majalengka City according Walsh and Lawler rainfall regime was varied in 0.5-0.98 with average of seasonal index at 0.79. Seasonal climate type of Majalengka City is seasonal or normal, according to the average of seasonal index (0.79). Majalengka City potentially has long summer that used to be caused drought. Rainfall intensity of Majalengka City from May to November were dominated by rainfall intensity under 100 mm. The best Arima model for Majalengka rainfall time series data (2011-2020) is Arima (3,0,1), which 3 is ordo for auto regres-sive, 0 is ordo for differencing and 1 is ordo for moving average.