Research on evolution mechanism of runway incursion risks based on system dynamics

Abstract

Based on system dynamics theory, the system boundary of runway incursion is confirmed. The causal loop diagram and system flow diagram of runway incursion risks evolution are built. The logical relationship and feedback mechanisms between the factors are analyzed. The process of runway incursion evolution is revealed and the trend of this evolution is forecasted. Based on the System Dynamics Software Vensim, the simulation results show that the risk value of runway incursion stabilizes after experiencing the peak value in a period of time. The finding is consistent with practical state of runway incursion in the civil aviation industry, which verifies the validity of the model.