Status and Future Vision of the CALIOPE Air Quality Forecasting System: Support for Air Quality Policies

Abstract

The CALIOPE forecasting system, developed and operated by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, has been providing daily forecasts of air quality for Europe and Spain since 2008. The system currently integrates an emission processing model (HERMESv3), a meteorological model (WRF-ARW), a chemical transport model (CMAQ), and a mineral dust model (BSC-DREAM8b) that accounts for the dust contribution from North Africa. Since its initial deployment, continuous updates have been implemented to the system, with improvements in emission source estimates and adjustments in the model configuration. Since 2020, and thanks to the co-development with the Catalan Regional Administration and the Barcelona Metropolitan Transport Authority, new approaches and methodologies have been implemented, including a new nested domain at higher spatial resolution (1 × 1 km2) over Catalonia, to further support decision-making. Additionally, beyond the mesoscale domains, the CALIOPE-Urban model has been incorporated into the modelling chain to simulate air quality at the urban street-scale in the city of Barcelona. In parallel to those improvements, the emission estimates have been improved through updates in emission activity data from the industrial and on-road traffic sectors. Lastly, a data-fusion method has been implemented to correct urban air quality fields and reduce biases affecting the forecasting system. In this contribution, we will present the most recent developments applied to the CALIOPE forecasting system and its application as an air quality management tool. We will also discuss future user-driven developments that take both scientific and technical aspects into consideration, including the migration of the mesoscale system to the on-line MONARCH model, a dissemination strategy aiming to promote the wider use of CALIOPE predictions through a new portal designed to improve the user experience, and the further integration of the system into decision-making processes.