Paleo Constraints on Future Sea-Level Rise

Abstract

Sea-level rise predicted for the twenty-first century and beyond will become increasingly hazardous to coastal populations, economies, static infrastructure, and ecosystems. Accurately predicting the magnitude and rate of future sea-level rise at local, regional, and global scales is necessary to effectively plan for and manage this growing hazard. Sea-level reconstructions show how high and how fast sea level rose when Earth’s climate regime was similar to that anticipated in the immediate future. We draw upon examples from the past three million years, including the Pliocene (∼3 million years ago), the Last Interglacial period (Marine Isotope Stage 5e, ∼125,000 years ago), and the Common Era (last ∼2000 years) to provide a synopsis of what is known about sea-level rise during these past warm periods and highlight some of the benefits and challenges of using paleo sea-level data to predict future changes.