Differential demographic transitions for Women of different ethnicities in Gauteng, South Africa, 1996-2011

Abstract

The paper evaluates the onset of first and second demographic transitions amongst the four main ethnic subpopulations of the metropolitan areas of Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni in Gauteng Province, South Africa. Extracting data from the 1996 and 2011 censuses, the results indicate that Asian women experienced second demographic transitions during the study period, while White women already achieved these transitions by 1996. These subpopulations are characterized by high singulate mean ages of marriage, increasing cohabitation rates, low singles rates, below replacement fertility, and increasing fertility postponement. There is also the emergence of doublepeaked fertility rates as these populations have different fertility peaks, due to female education and career decisions. Black and Coloured women show characteristics of first demographic transitions with low changes in cohabitation and singles rates, declines in fertility to replacement level fertility and low fertility postponement. Black women have very high but rapidly declining singulate mean ages of marriage. This is evidence that Black subpopulations are replacing traditional extended marriage customs with western marriage patterns, which conforms to the modernization trends in first demographic transitions.