Sensitivity of biogenic isoprene emissions to past, present, and future environmental conditions and implications for atmospheric chemistry

Abstract

We have implemented a process-based isoprene emission model in the HadGEM2 Earth-system model with coupled atmospheric chemistry in order to examine the feedback between isoprene emission and climate. Isoprene emissions and their impact on atmospheric chemistry and climate are estimated for preindustrial (1860-1869), present-day (2000-2009), and future (2100-2109) climate conditions. The estimate of 460 TgC/yr for present-day global total isoprene emission is consistent with previous estimates. Preindustrial isoprene emissions are estimated to be 26% higher than present-day. Future isoprene emissions using the RCP8.5 scenario are similar to present-day because increased emissions resulting from climate warming are countered by CO 2 inhibition of isoprene emissions. The impact of biogenic isoprene emissions on the global O 3 burden and CH 4 lifetime is small but locally significant, and the impact of changes in isoprene emissions on atmospheric chemistry depends strongly on the state of climate and chemistry. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.